You know the feeling. You’ve watched enough soccer to know when it’s time to start inching forward in your seat - when the ping-pong-y randomness that dominates much of the run of play gives way to a guilt-edged opportunity to score.

The ball lands at the feet of a forward - one of the guys they pay the big bucks to deliver in these situations - in the penalty box. It’s time to get excited. It’s time to start clenching your fingers together to form a fist. A fist that you will fling in triumphant celebration when the ball ripples into the net.

That feeling of anticipatory jubilation? Austin FC fans have learned to stop feeling that in 2025. Heading into the Verde and Black’s weather-delayed Wednesday night match at Q2 Stadium against Real Salt Lake, no team in MLS had underperformed its expected goals (xG) by more than Austin FC (all stats per FBRef.com or FotMob.com, unless otherwise noted). Missed chances have defined the Verde and Black’s season more than anything else.

And missed chances were again the story in Verde’s 1-1 Wednesday draw. Austin FC had chances - good chances, too. The Verde and Black accrued more xG than RSL - 2.07 to 1.74 - but failed to capitalize in key moments.

“I don’t know if you watch Ted Lasso…we may have to do some kind of things like that to take (away the) bad luck that we are having,” Austin FC head coach Nico Estevez joked in his post-match press conference. “(When) you have some of the chances right there in the six-yard box and you don’t capitalize on those, it’s difficult,” he added.

Any joy an Austin FC fan derived from substitute Diego Rubio’s 93rd-minute equalizer would have been quickly extinguished by the realization that the team hasn’t won in MLS since April 19th’s home win over the Los Angeles Galaxy. This stretch includes three draws at Q2 Stadium - two of which came against teams currently below the playoff line, RSL and Atlanta United.

For those looking for a bleak summation of Austin FC’s current finishing woes, the RSL contest provided a tidy encapsulation. Be honest with yourself. How confident did you feel that Brandon Vazquez - a Superman whose kryptonite appears to be clear-cut scoring chances - would finish Osman Bukari’s 22nd-minute dribbling exhibition down the right flank with a goal?

A dead-eyed, empty stare and a rueful shake of the head were probably the most those wearing green on Wednesday could muster when Vazquez's header clanged off the crossbar. Why get upset? Why elevate your blood pressure? We’ve seen this story before. It’s as ubiquitous as a Law and Order re-run on USA. No forward in MLS is underperforming his xG more than Vazquez. Please also note the appearance of Myrto Uzuni in third on the chart below, which shows the top 10 forwards underperforming their xG in MLS this season.

Newly-acquired RSL striker Willy Agada provided the clinical finish Austin FC’s forwards have consistently failed to produce in the 67th minute. The service came via Diego Luna whipping in a beautiful, arching cross on a set piece. It was the fifth set-piece goal Austin FC has allowed this season, tied for ninth-most in the league (per WhoScored.com). As on Michael Boxall’s goal this past Saturday against Minnesota United, Austin FC left a dangerous set-piece threat in too much space. Even before Luna strikes the ball, Agada has plenty of room between Ilie Sanchez and Brendan Hines-Ike.

Tiny defensive lapses become more noticeable when goals are scarce going the other way. But is it just bad luck? Does Austin FC only need a visit from the Finishing Fairy (or maybe some Ted Lasso magic) to turn its season around? It’s easy to think of Verde’s 2025 attack as diabolically awful. And in terms of goals scored, it is. After Wednesday night’s matches, no team in the league has scored fewer goals this season than Austin FC. But how different would we feel about Austin’s attack if the team was sitting on 21 goals - the number of goals Verde's 20.9 xG this season roughly suggests it should be sitting on - instead of just 11?

Considering Austin FC shelled out over $30 million worth of transfer fees for its front three, 21 goals would still be an underwhelming return - it would put Verde right around mid-table for goals scored in MLS in 2025. But paired with the team’s still respectable defense, it would probably be enough to keep fan frustration from rising too high.

“If we could have scored those chances (against RSL) no one will think about if we have to improve in other areas,” Estevez said post-match. “Of course, we have to be better in other situations. We are adding (Guilherme) Biro inside the box to add a plus one there. We are adding (Besard) Sabovic on top of the box to get those shots. Today, we had some good combinations with Owen (Wolff), Jon (Gallagher), (and with) Buka (Bukari),” he continued.

A bright spot in Austin FC’s extremely lopsided passing network from Wednesday night is that chemistry does seem to be forming between the right-sided trio of Wolff, Gallagher, and Bukari.

Verde’s draw with RSL leaves the team in 10th place in the Western Conference. If the playoffs started today (and what a short season that would be), Austin FC would not partake. More chemistry will need to form elsewhere in the team’s attack if Verde is going to achieve the very reasonable goal of reaching the 2025 postseason. And if the attack does start clicking and more chances do start flowing? Austin FC better finish them.